Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Saturday Afternoon into Sunday Probability of Accumulating Snow: >95% Moderate to Significant snow totals are likely to impact the Mid-Atlantic Saturday afternoon into the day on Sunday. This winter storm looks to set it's highest impact area in a zone from Central Virginia to Southern Maryland. Lesser, but still admirable, impacts will be felt further north towards the Mason Dixon Line. Shown above, I have increased my snow forecast to a healthy 4-7" throughout the region. Ahead of the storm, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm WARNING for all of Southern Maryland and Tidewater Virginia. Winter Weather ADVISORIES are up for northern counties that will see lower snow totals. Those weather alerts are shown below. Our storm is currently developing in Texas. With the storm's current placement there, it is allowing for a nice flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to occur. Cold air is pretty entrenched across the northern tier of the country; which is allowing that moisture to fall as snow. That is all shown below on the 5pm Friday radar snapshot. There is a weak northern piece of energy with this system. It is hard to tell, but that is helping in enhance those snows in the Midwest. That weak northern piece will start to race out ahead from the main storm. It will be that fast moving piece of northern energy that will bring the Mid-Atlantic an inital snow threat on Saturday. Generally, light snow will fall while the southern system tries to catch up. This is when northern areas could see a majority of their snow. I have that shown below with future radar stopped late Saturday afternoon. While some snow is possible, I do not expect much to fall in Southern Maryland and Tidewater Virginia on Saturday. It will be that main southern piece of energy that will deliver most of the snow to southern zones. The southern storm will begin to take over during the overnight hours of Saturday. By Sunday mid-morning, snow will be falling across the region. The heaviest and more moderate snows will be focused across Southern Maryland. That all is shown in the image below. In a change from yesterday's forecast, this system does appear that it will come a touch further north. That will allow for some heavier snow, thus the higher totals. Most areas of sleet and ice should be confided to Virginia. I believe that the high pressure to our north will keep our area cold enough for snow. The only concern I would have for some sleet would be across Tidewater Virginia and extreme southern St. Mary's County (south of Great Mills). Even that wouldn't happen until late. Shown in the planner below, this should be all snow, with the biggest impacts focused on Sunday. The impact from this storm looks to be moderate to high for our region, as shown below. The big question I know is coming is, "How will this effect operations on Monday?" School Odds will be released Sunday evening. However, impacts could linger into Monday, namely with travel. This will be the prominent across our region. Delays and closings are certainty possible on Monday from lingering impacts. Again, I will release more specific county-by-county school odds on Sunday. My-oh-my how this forecast continues to change. Just from yesterday, the snowfall forecast has increased for our region. I had mentioned yesterday that these southern systems do have a history of ticking north to give us some higher totals. Sure enough, that appears to be the case. Southern Maryland looks to be game on for some significant snow totals and impacts Sunday. I will continue to monitor this storm, and make any adjustments to my forecast as I see fit. However, I think this should be pretty close to my final call on this storm. I will have non-stop coverage on Facebook and Twitter to keep our community prepared and head of the storm. Stay with Southern Maryland's Most Accurate forecaster for updates!
Lead Forecaster -John A. Bordash
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Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Saturday Afternoon into Sunday Probability of Accumulating Snow: 95% Snow chances continue to become more solidified for the Mid-Atlantic. Impactful snow looks to strike the area this weekend, with the bulk of the highest totals focused south and west of DC. Areas in Southern Maryland and Central Virginia should be able to squeeze some decent amounts. Impacts could linger into the day on Monday. Snow could start flying across the Mid-Atlantic as early as Saturday as the first initial wave of snow moves through. The northern branch of this storm looks to race out ahead of the "parent" storm down south. As it does so, light snow will break out across northern areas. This is largely where they will see a large chunk of their snow. I am not expecting much snow in Southern Maryland on Saturday, as we look to be too far south for those impacts. As that northern stream wave moves off the coast, that "parent" southern storm will take aim. The storm will move across the Carolina's and off the East Coast on Sunday. With the storm placed just off the Carolina coast, it will tap into Atlantic moisture and throw it into the Mid-Altantic. A strong and cold area of high pressure to our north will lock in the cold air, ensuring this stays all snow for Southern Maryland. Shown below is a snapshot of Sunday afternoon, when conditions could be at their height. The southern storm will focus most of its impacts in areas south of DC. Moderate snow could fall, allowing for decent accumulations. It is important to note, the Southern Maryland snow forecast is largely dependent on this southern storm. If this storm stays a tad more suppressed to the south, or is not as strong, totals could be lowered. On the same token, if this storm comes a touch to the north, or is stronger, totals could be a hair higher. These are details we should iron out over the next couple of days. We will begin to see impacts from this second storm Saturday night into Sunday morning. With temperatures in the lower 30s, this should be all snow. As the afternoon wears on, snow will start to become moderate. If this storm is stronger, we could see the heaviest snows fall Sunday afternoon into the evening. Nevertheless, this storm should move away Sunday night into Monday. By sunrise on Monday, the snow should be over. Shown below is the storm forecast. This should be a decent event for our region. Moderate impacts, largely with travel, are likely on Sunday. Depending on that exact track with the second storm, we could see impacts linger into Monday. Yes, that does mean schools and business could be effected on Monday. It is far too early to say what will happen with school impacts. However, I will say that delays could be possible. I will have school odds out on Sunday for Monday. Shown below is a look at where we stand with our storm. A decent 3-6" looks likely. Without the southern storm being as potent, it is possible we don't see as much snow. It looks like Southern Maryland is game on for some snow on Sunday! While this is not a storm where you will need to stock the pantry, it will be an appreciable event. There are still some uncertainties in regard to exact track and strength of the storm. We will iron those questions out tomorrow night, so you will want to stay tuned. I will have continuous updates and coverage on Facebook and Twitter. Keep it locked in with Southern Maryland's Most Accurate Forecaster.
Lead Forecaster -John A. Bordash Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Saturday Afternoon into Sunday Probability of Accumulating Snow: 80% Outside of two winter weather makers early this season, Winter 2018-2019 has been rather uneventful. We have seen quite the number of storms move through and impact the region the last few weeks. However, the lack of cold air has lead to all of these being just rain makers. It does appear that our fate is changing though. As stated in my winter forecast, we are beginning to embark on what looks to be an active second half of the winter. The active stretch should kickoff this weekend, with the first snow threat of 2019. Last night's line of moderate rain helped to introduce an area of high pressure to the region that is helping to funnel in cold air. By tomorrow its presence will be felt on the heels of gusty winds. It will be this area of high pressure that is in-part responsible for this storm. With its placement to our north, it will force this developing storm to our south. This is an ideal setup for Southern Maryland snow. Shown below is a snapshot of our setup on Friday. Our system will be developing in Texas, and will be inducing a large swath of Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico out ahead of it. Our storm system will trek across the southern tier of the country late this week. With this track, areas in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky could tap into some decent to significant snow. As the northern piece of this storm races out ahead, some snow could begin to fall in the Mid-Atlantic as early as Saturday afternoon. This initial wave should not be too impactful, but will coat most surfaces. It will be when the main southern storm moves along reaches the coastline that local impacts will begin to ramp up. Light to more moderate snows will kick off overnight Saturday and should last through a good chunk of Sunday. The area of high pressure to our north should provice more than enough cold air to the Mid-Atlantic to keep our precipitation all snow. The exact track and strength of this storm are not nailed down just yet. Both of those will have profound impacts to our forecast and how much we will see. If this storm were to track further north, we would see the heaviest snow move further north (away from SoMD) and maybe mix our snow will some sleet or rain. If this storm tracks further south, we would only see light snow, and it would be confined to areas south of DC. I believe our final solution will end up somewhere between those two tracks. Where our storm comes far enough north to bring some decent snow to our region, but not far enough north that we deal with the rain/snow line. As we sit 3-4 days out from this storm effecting us, it is looking likely that this will be a decent sized storm. While this will not be the biggest event Southern MD has ever seen, it is a nice ease back into the winter grind. The graphic below shows the storm's impact. Shown are general ranges for snow totals, do not take them as gospel. Look more so at the impacts described. Nevertheless, Sunday will be the most impacted day. Travel looks to be impacted the most with the accumulating snow. As shown in the initial graphic, Southern MD stands a good shot to see snow. It looks like the best chances of heavy snow will be just to our west. We are starting to get more information as things come better into focus with this system. There are still a lot of things to be worked out; namely with the track. Due to that, I will hold off on releasing any specific forecast map until tomorrow evening. Tomorrow is when this storm will come on shore in California, and we can start measuring it's parameters. This means that some changes are still possible with this forecast. Stay with Southern Maryland's most trusted source of weather information for continuous updates. I will have updates both on Facebook and Twitter.
Lead Forecaster -John A. Bordash |
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