A lot has become evident over the last 24 hours. Joaquin's forecast is beginning to become more clear as we sit with rain and wet conditions for the next 24-36 hours in the Mid-Atlantic. There's a lot to talk about, so let's get started. Major Hurricane Joaquin The forecast with Joaquin has becoming increasingly more clear. The forecast models we rely on the most with tropical weather forecasting are continuing to prodce out to sea tracks. However, it is important to note that they did come a bit west last night. Because of Joaquin's decreased speed, and it's delayed NW turn, the blocking high that would send it into the coast weakens, so it moves out to sea. What that means is that if Joaquin doesn't get kicked out to sea, it will just move north, pass Cape Cod, and into Atlantic Canada. Below are my scenarios
Wet 36 Hours Ahead This part of the forecast has always been pretty easy. Today and tomorrow, we're going to see a lot of rain with wind. All of this rain should erase any rainfall deficits we may have. This system looks to be the first real Nor'Easter of the season. I think the heaviest rains with the highest winds hit between 4pm today and 4am tomorrow morning. After about noon is when the chance of rain starts to fall from 90% to near 60%. I think we don't reallty start to clear out until Sunday, but even then we still have a 40% chance of rain. Below is a look at the current alerts we have in effect around the region Conclusion I can now say with 90% confidence that Joaquin will head out to sea. We will contiue to see moderate rains from the Nor'Easter the next 36 hour. The worse of the weather will be from 4pm - 4am. Below is a look at forecasted rainfall totals. All in all, while some may criticize my earlier forecasts, and call this a bust, I'm happy it is. A landfalling Category 2 or 3 hurricane in SoMD would cause so much destruction and devastation. This area would look like a natural disaster zone. We dodged a huge bullet this time, but next time we may not be so lucky. Stay tuned to JB Weather for the latest Southern Maryland weather forecasts. This will be my last Joaquin update. Stay safe, stay dry, and stay warm.
Lead Forecaster -John Bordash
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Nobody ever said that forecast with Joaquin would be easy, and it has proven that it won't be. So much has been coming in over the past 24 hours, and we're beginning to get a better idea about the storm. However, this forecast still have low confidence. Joaquin Right Now Major Hurricane Joaquin is currently a monster Category 4 storm, that is raking havoc in the Bahamas. Joaquin is actually the strongest storm in the Atlantic since Igor in September of 2010. Hurricane Warnings have been in place for the Bahamas for a couple of days now. As I have discussed in previous posts, the remnants of former Hurricane Ida have been the major driving forecast of the short term forecast, which then effects the long term. Major Hurricane Joaquin is continuing to push further southwest, as shown above in the 8pm Advisory from the National Hurricane Center. This continued southwesterly push has potential to be good news for us. Joaquin's Forecast Needless to say, this forecast has been hectic. However, I've always said that we need to keep all scenarios on the table, and even tonight I will continue to say that. The weather models we look at have had Joaquin's intensity forecast off for the most part, so it's been hard to put much faith into their track forecast. Nevertheless, almost every model we look at with tropical weather, including one of our two major models, the American Model, showed Joaquin tacking up and in to the coast over the past few days. While most our models showed this scenario, the European, the second major model we look at, has continued to show an out to sea track. We weren't putting much faith in the European, as every other model showed another track, and considered it an outlier. Well, last night, the American model, along with a few others, started to trend towards the European. Now that Joaquin has continued to move more southwest than forecasted, it's beginning to appear that the European may be correct. Now, I'm not going to outright advertise an out to sea track. This storm will either come up and in to the Mid-Atlantic coast, or out to sea. There is not much of a middle ground. Below are my scenarios based off of what I've seen tonight. SCENARIO A (40%) MID ATLANTIC LANDFALL This is the worse case scenario. Keep in mid that the chance of this happening is starting to go down, but it is far from 0%. How does this scenario play out? The storm gets pulled north by the Jet Stream, and flung into the coastline from the strong high. With this, landfall could be anywhere from Southern New Jersey to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. What would this mean for us? Well, I'll go in the middle with a Virginia Beach landfall as a Category 1 storm, and here are the impacts:
SCENARIO B (60%) OUT TO SEA This scenario is the best case one. This scenario's chances are becoming more likely, due to the continued southward progression, but this is can not be solely advertised this solution. How does this scenario play out? The storm interacts too much the remnants of Ida, continues to move southwest over the next 12 hours, and gets "ejected" out to sea by the Jet Stream. With this, it would be as if Joaquin had never even formed in terms of impacts here. What would this mean for us? Here are the impacts:
Putting it all Together
It is needless to say that things are difficult with this forecast, but we may have found a way out of a dangerous situation. However, I will not write off a Mid-Atlantic landfall, it would be irresponsible to do so. I still think a Mid-Atlantic landfall is still a real possibility. This storm will need to start moving north tonight to give us an impact. Additionally, I do not think that the current forecast track is not realistic. This storm will either move up and into the coast, or out to sea. I've said before that we will know more by tonight, and we do, the chance of an out to sea track is rising. Friday will be the day to confirm one scenario. Stay with JB Weather on Twitter, Facebook, and right here on our website, for the latest on this storm. I may do another video update tomorrow. Stay tuned. Lead Forecaster -John Bordash I will preface this with: this will not be a long a post as I'm writing this in between classes, but wanted to get something out. Expect a longer, more detailed, post this afternoon. Major Hurricane Joaquin Late last night, Joaquin continued to rapidly strengthen, and is now classified as a Major Hurricane. The storm currently sits near the Bahamas, and is not really moving all that fast. Hurricane Warnings are now in effect for the Bahama Islands. Last night's model runs caught on to something that was not really looked at as a high possibility, the out to sea track. Over the past couple of days, almost every model we look at with tropical weather, including one of our two major models, the American Model, showed Joaquin tacking up and in to the coast. While most our models showed this scenario, the European, the second major model we look at, has continued to show an out to sea track. We weren't putting much faith in the European, as every other model showed another track, and considered it an outlier. Well, last night, the American model started to trend towards the European. In yesterday's blog post I detailed how this storm would go out to sea. Right now, the storm is continuing to get pushed southwest from Ida's Remnants. If Joaquin continues to go southwest this evening, the chance of an out to sea track goes up dramatically. The National Hurricane Center's latest forecast cone now show a shift to the east, but the track they show is unlikely. This storm will either come up and into the Mid-Atlantic, or out to sea. I see no real way this goes straight up the coast. So, what do I now think will happen? My thoughts have changed, and below are scenarios: SCENARIO A (50%) MID ATLANTIC LANDFALL This is the worse case scenario. How does this scenario play out? The storm gets pulled north by the Jet Stream, and flung into the coastline from the strong high. With this, landfall could be anywhere from Southern New Jersey to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. What would this mean for us? Well, I'll go in the middle with a Virginia Beach landfall as a Category 1 storm, and here are the impacts:
SCENARIO B (50%) OUT TO SEA This scenario is the best case one. How does this scenario play out? The storm interacts too much the remnants of Ida, continues to move southwest over the next 18 hours, and gets "ejected" out to sea by the Jet Stream. With this, it would be as if Joaquin had never even formed in terms of impacts here. What would this mean for us? Here are the impacts:
Conclusion
Needless to say that things are getting really difficult, but we may have found a way out of a serious situation. However, I will not write off a Mid-Atlantic landfall, it would be irresponsible to do so. I still think a Mid-Atlantic landfall is still a real possibility. It is important to note that the chance of an out to sea track is rising. Again, I will have a more detailed post this afternoon after the 5pm advisory from the National Hurricane, but I need to get off to class now. Stay tuned to JB Weather for the latest information on Joaquin. Lead Forecaster -John Bordash |
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