A lot has become evident over the last 24 hours. Joaquin's forecast is beginning to become more clear as we sit with rain and wet conditions for the next 24-36 hours in the Mid-Atlantic. There's a lot to talk about, so let's get started.
Major Hurricane Joaquin
The forecast with Joaquin has becoming increasingly more clear. The forecast models we rely on the most with tropical weather forecasting are continuing to prodce out to sea tracks. However, it is important to note that they did come a bit west last night. Because of Joaquin's decreased speed, and it's delayed NW turn, the blocking high that would send it into the coast weakens, so it moves out to sea. What that means is that if Joaquin doesn't get kicked out to sea, it will just move north, pass Cape Cod, and into Atlantic Canada. Below are my scenarios
Wet 36 Hours Ahead
This part of the forecast has always been pretty easy. Today and tomorrow, we're going to see a lot of rain with wind. All of this rain should erase any rainfall deficits we may have.
This system looks to be the first real Nor'Easter of the season. I think the heaviest rains with the highest winds hit between 4pm today and 4am tomorrow morning. After about noon is when the chance of rain starts to fall from 90% to near 60%. I think we don't reallty start to clear out until Sunday, but even then we still have a 40% chance of rain.
Below is a look at the current alerts we have in effect around the region
I can now say with 90% confidence that Joaquin will head out to sea. We will contiue to see moderate rains from the Nor'Easter the next 36 hour. The worse of the weather will be from 4pm - 4am. Below is a look at forecasted rainfall totals.
All in all, while some may criticize my earlier forecasts, and call this a bust, I'm happy it is. A landfalling Category 2 or 3 hurricane in SoMD would cause so much destruction and devastation. This area would look like a natural disaster zone. We dodged a huge bullet this time, but next time we may not be so lucky. Stay tuned to JB Weather for the latest Southern Maryland weather forecasts. This will be my last Joaquin update. Stay safe, stay dry, and stay warm.