Many who know me know that I HATE to change my forecast last minute or during a storm. However, the only time I've ever done it in the past two and half years, it was necessary. Like last time, this is a necessary update. It looks like this storm exceed my previous expectations. It looks very likely that most of the region will see at least 12" of snow, with some getting over 18".
The storm also looks to come in a bit earlier than previously forecasted. Snow should start across Southern MD between 11am and 2pm today. Some sleet and rain may mix in at time Saturday, but mixing problems will not be a big worry. Our Blizzard WARNING takes effect at 1pm today, with Governor Hogan's State of Emergency for Maryland already in effect. Many schools and businesses are already closed today, or scheduled to close early, and will remain closed all weekend. It will take days to recover from this high impact, crippling blizzard. Wherever you are by lunchtime, expect to stay there for days. SMECO announced yesterday that if the winds get to Blizzard conditions (35mph gusts for 3 or more hours) they will be forced to wait to restore any outed power until the storm comes to an end to ensure safety for their workers. For more in depth information, refer to yesterday's post. Stay with JB Weather for non-stop 24/7 coverage here on the website, the Facebook page, the Twitter page, and on my Periscope. Lead Forecaster -John Bordash
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The snow has started in many parts of the Mid-Atlantic, and as is on it's way to Southern Maryland. The storm looks like it's coming in faster, so the snow could start as early as 11am for some. As it becomes steadier and heavier, temperatures will drop and road conditions will go downhill. Treated highways and major roadways should fare decently into the early-evening or so with temperatures near or a little above freezing.
Confidence remains high that most, if not all, locations will get a minimum of around 10 inches by the time the storm finishes later in the day Saturday. There's a pretty good chance that some or many spots reach near or over 2 feet. Governor Hogan's State of Emergency for Maryland took effect at 7am. Many schools, business, and governments have either closed for today (and the weekend) or will closing early today to be closed for the weekend. For more, see my detailed forecast, accumulation map, and timeline. Stay with JB Weather on Facebook, Twitter, Periscope (mobile app that allows me to go live) and right here on my website for non-stop 24/7 coverage. Lead Forecaster -John Bordash GOVERNOR HOGAN HAS DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR MARYLAND Not just a major, but a crippling winter storm is approaching. Please take this potentially dangerous storm seriously. Snow will start between mid and late-afternoon Friday, and the evening commute on Friday will likely be impacted, so take precautions accordingly. Slowly through the afternoon and early evening the snow will accumulate. But the bulk of the storm's fury will come after dark and throughout Saturday when snow rates could be over 1-3 inches per hour. It does also appear that sleet, freezing rain, and rain will mix in across our region, which will effect snow totals. However, the latest afternoon runs of the models are suggesting not as many mixing problems as once feared this morning. Snowfall intensity will diminish Saturday afternoon, slowly. But breezes will pickup, creating cold wind-chilled air. The impact of this storm will be felt for a long time after snow ceases by early Sunday morning. The National Weather Service has gone ahead and issued a BLIZZARD WARNING from the I-95 corridor, west to the Bay, including all of Southern MD. Elsewhere, there are Winter Storm Warnings (pink) and Winter Weather Advisories (purple) up for locations across the Mid-Atlantic. The Blizzard Warning does mean that in addition to the wintry weather, we will also see high wind gusts over 35mph for three or more hours. Impact across the region will be high. Travel will be very difficult Friday night through Sunday Morning. DO NOT DRIVE unless absolutely necessary. If you do travel, know that you could be putting your life at risk. Also be courteous of emergency vehicles and snow plows needing right of passage. Flying in/out of D.C. or Baltimore? Airports will likely be forced to close Friday night through Saturday evening. Normal service could take a few days to restore. While I'm not putting out any official school odds for any day other than Friday, expect multi-day school closures next week along with business and the government being forced to close. Below is a new map I will be using to show travel and school impacts. What about School Odds for Friday? Even though the storm may be coming in later, I do not think that schools will want to risk a repeat of yesterday's travel problems across the DMV. But, schools could try to get in as much "learning time" (I use that lightly because not much learning will be happening) before the Blizzard. Some school systems may announce tonight, but some may wait until tomorrow morning. I will have updates on school statues tonight and all day tomorrow (if needed). Nevertheless, below are my school odds. The Bottom Line is that this is looking like more and more of a crippling winter storm for the Mid-Atlantic. 8-14"+ can be expect across the region along with some sleet and freezing rain. This storm will close everything down for days. The later in the day you head through Friday, the more likely you are to encounter impacts. It looks like the storm should be arriving between 1 and 5pm Friday afternoon. Power outages are possible, if not likely. Have a plan ready to go if you lose power, because you could be without it for days. And of course, stay with JB Weather for accurate reporting on Southern Maryland weather, and how it will affect you. You can get updates here, on Facebook, or on Twitter.
Lead Forecaster -John Bordash All week I have been talking about the chance of flurries for this evening with a weak system moving through the region. Well, it appears that this event has definitely overperformed. Very few roads, if any, were treated today, and road temps are well below freezing. Even though we only saw 1-2" of snow for most, everything has stuck, and we are looking at some problems region wide. I think that schools may have to opt to delay the day before our massive blizzard comes in. There is even the outside chance of a closure. Below is the debut of a new map here at JB Weather to show what to expect region wide. Stay with JB Weather, I will be up at 4am to report on any school calls. Stay safe, and keep in locked with JB Weather for winter weather coverage you can count on
Lead Forecaster -John Bordash A major, high-impact winter storm is very likely to strike the Mid-Atlantic with heavy snow Friday and Saturday. This storm has the potential to be as strong as part one of the "Snowpocalypse" storm of Feb 5-6, 2010. The one difference is that the atmosphere will be somewhat warmer this time around, allowing for the possibility that snow will mix with sleet, primarily along and east of I-95. Adding the high winds in addition to the winter weather, will make this not only a winter storm, but a Blizzard. The National Weather Service has gone ahead and hoisted a BLIZZARD WATCH for all areas along and east of I-95, which includes all of Southern Maryland. For a storm to be considered a blizzard, all you need are winds over 35mph for over 3 hours, there is no snow requirement. However, we will also see high snow totals in addition to the high winds. Even though we have the blizzard watch, I think the highest snow totals will stay out to our west. As our storm system passes off the coast, we will see coastal flooding along all the Atlantic Beaches from North Carolina to New York. Additionally, as this storm rapidly strengthens, we will see high winds wrap around, hence the blizzard watch. It looks like areas to our north and west will be mainly snow for all of the event. For areas along and to the east of I-95, we will see snow too, but we will have some mixing overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. Rain will mix in at times on the coast, but they too will see wintry weather. BOTTOM LINEI have growing confidence that our region will experience the first blizzard in over 6 years. Right now, it looks like accumulations will be in, and around, a foot of snow. The latest trends put some of the heavier snow in our region, but I will hold off on any changes. This storm moves in Friday Afternoon, which will make it a hard call for schools. You need to begin preparations today. If you have plans to fly or travel anytime after noon Friday, I would strongly recommend changing them or risk some major headaches. I urge you to stay with JB Weather for the latest forecasts without any hype. I will be updating this forecast tomorrow with my final call. Hunker down SoMD, this could easily break our top ten all time snowstorm list! Lead Forecaster -John Bordash |
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