Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Monday Night - Tuesday
Probability of Accumulating Snow (1" or more): 30% Winter made it's presence felt across the area this morning as a weak coastal system changed last night's rain over to a mix of snow and sleet. We didn't have enough frozen precipitation to cause major issues, but it was enough be a nuisance. Our forecast of a slushy coating to 2" verified nicely across the region. Now all eyes turn to the potential winter storm threat for early next week. At this point, we're still three to four days out from this storm, so a lot of details are unknown. I'll be gone Saturday and Sunday, which means no posts from me just limited ones from Daniel. Thus, I just wanted to give our followers a heads up with my latest thoughts before leaving. A storm on Sunday will be sliding well to our south, and give portions of the Carolinas some rain showers. We should remain dry this weekend. If that system track a little bit further northwest, we could have some rain showers on the Eastern Shore on Sunday, but it would take a drastic change to get any precip back to Southern Maryland. Right now, it appears that an area of low pressure will track from the Ohio Valley and across our region before developing a new low off the coast and tracks up the coast. I've seen this set up before, and it is one that tends not to work in our favor for snow lovers in SoMD. My forecast's have busted before when we have this set up, so I'll keep my forecast a bit more "conservative" or warmer at this point. As things stand 4 days out, it looks like we will have rain showers develop Monday evening with temperatures in the 40s, with the chance of some sleet and snow mixing in NW of I95. As the new low forms Monday night into Tuesday, it will try to bring down colder air and attempt to switch us over to snow, and any precip would be down with by Tuesday afternoon. Again, I don't want to get too specific this far out because so much can change. I wouldn't expect more than a couple of inches for us, but even that is just speculation at this point. ANd before anyone asks, way too early for School Odds. Stay with JB Weather this weekend as Daniel will have posts and updates on this storm. I'll be back Sunday afternoon with an updated forecast. Enjoy the nice weather this weekend and root for the Carolina Panthers to bring home a Super Bowl Ring ;). Lead Forecaster -John Bordash
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The forecast for tonight and tomorrow morning is not an easy one at all. The setup we have is marginal at best for accumulating snow, but the question is if the odds will work in our favor. I've seen setups similar to this before, and each time they it has been a tricky forecast. There is the potential for some good snows, but the bust potential is high. For a quick overview, scroll down to the "The Bottom Line" paragraph. The Setup we have going into tonight is marginal. We have the cold front that moved through yesterday sitting just off the coastline, with moisture streaming along it from the Gulf of Mexico. A weak area of low pressure will form along it, and run up the coast. The biggest question with this forecast is how close to the coast does it come? It's proximity to the coast will affect not only the amount of precipitation that gets thrown back to the coast, but how cold we are able to get. We have two scenarios for this storm. In Scenario 1 the storm is further out to sea, which would allow temperatures to fall between 30-34 with little to no precipitation. Our second scenario is that the storm moves closer to the coast which wouldn't allow temps to fall as low, only between 32 and 36, but we'd see more precip that could be heavy and may be able to overcome the temps. The "bust" potential comes in play more so with the second scenario. If the precip is not heavy enough, it will not be able to overcome the temps, and would be mainly rain. Today our weather models were showing a solution more like the second scenario, and based off Radar and Satellite today, I agree. Now the question is: will the precip be able to overcome the marginal temps and switch over to snow? My thinking is that it may take a while at first, but we will eventually switch over to snow. My biggest issue that I see with accumulating snow is that we have been warm the past few days, thus the ground temps are warm and road temps are even warmer. I expect any snow that falls to accumulate on grassy/shaded areas, on car tops, and maybe on your deck. If the snow falls heavy enough, there might some areas of slush on the roads. However, the bust potential would be that we are looking at no accumulation. As you can see above, the National Weather Service has gone ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Southern Maryland. The further south and east you head, higher the chance of accumulating snow. The Impacts from this storm will not be high. The reason why this could be somewhat troublesome is the timing. Rain would transition over from snow between midnight and 3am, and any snow would be done by about 8 or 9am. There would be some impacts on the morning commute. How will this affect schools? If things unfold the way my forecast says, I could see delays for Calvert and St. Mary's. If the system moves further east, I could see delays for the other counties too. If any snow lasts longer, there may be some closings. But remember, the bust potential, in which we see just rain, would mean on time openings, hence why these numbers are low. The Bottom Line is that snow is possible tomorrow morning. Temperatures will only be marginal for snow to fall and accumulate, so there is a high bust potential. It's for that reason that is a low confidence forecast. The further south and east you live, higher the chance for snow. Southern St. Mary's may end up with the highest totals for our region. There could be minor impacts tomorrow for the AM Rush. School delays are possible in Calvert & St. Mary's. I will start continuous coverage tomorrow morning at 4am to cover any delays & impacts to your morning commute. Stay with JB Weather for the latest on SoMD weather. Lead Forecaster -John Bordash A cold front is moving through the region tonight, hence the rain, and will bring cooler temps late this week and weekend with temps maxing out in the 40s. The front will stall just off the East Coast and a weak area of low pressure will develop. As this weak storm heads north, it could try to push precip back to the coastline, which would fall as snow or sleet with temps in the low 30s. The question remains, though: How far west will this storm come, and thus how much precipitation will make it to the coast? Today's afternoon model runs moved a little west with the storm's precipitation shield. The result is that our models pretty much have Southern Maryland seeing some light, accumulating snow between 3am and 9am Friday morning. Verbatim, some areas on the Eastern Shore would see a couple of inches, while other areas closer to I-95, could get just flurries or no snow at all. Will that scenario play out? Potentially, but storms like these have busted before, so you must take all of this with a grain of salt, and I am a little skeptical about this. The Bottom Line is that some light snow is possible right now Friday Morning. If I had to throw a number on it, I'd say about a 40% chance. Any snow would fall between 3am and 9am, and that would spell some trouble for the morning commute, but nothing too major. Before anyone asks, it's too early to even speculate on School Odds for Friday. If this threat is legitimate, then expect School Odds tomorrow. A coating to an inch is possible. However, I'll update that, and do an actual forecast map, tomorrow afternoon if conditions warrant. Stay tuned to JB Weather for the latest on Southern Maryland weather. Lead Forecaster -John Bordash The snow came pummeling into the DMV yesterday afternoon, and since then, we have seen a lot of it. Snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour have been common. Here, in Southern Maryland, we did also see quite a bit of sleet mix in for 4-6 hours last night. Before the sleet started, I measured 10.3" if snow here in Solomons, MD. We then added 2" of pure sleet on top of that, and have put an additional 1.2" of snow on top of that today. Below is a chart of my hourly snow totals so far. Temperatures will not make it above freezing today. This will allow for most of us to stay all snow today, and stay away from mixing problems. The only exception would be for southern Saint Mary's County where some more sleet could try to mix in. The Storm has stayed off the coast, and is currently off the Southern Delmarva beaches. Because of the storm's placement, this is when the blizzard conditions will begin across our area. Winds of 30-40mph can be expected with wind gusts as high as 50-65mph. The National Weather Serivce has extended the High Wind WARNING util 7pm this evening. Impacts So Far have been what we've been telling you they would be. Main roads are snow covered, and I can only imagine what secondary streets and back roads look like. We haven't see too many power outages, but that is slowly changing. So far, 67 customers are without power (as shown below). Once blizzard conditions occur, SMECO has said that, "We will not risk the safety of our crews. Restorations will resume once the winds fall back below blizzard force." And that could be as late as midnight tonight. The Bottom Line is that we're in the peak of the storm from right now (9:30am) through about 5pm tonight. High winds are likely and the snow can be heavy to moderate at time. Power Outages will be likely, and travel will be near impossible. Many have already seen 12-16"+ of snow, and you can expect to add 6-12 more inches on top of that by the time all is said and done. I will continue to keep Facebook, Twitter, the website, and Periscope updated as best I can. However, in the event that I lose power, I can not guarantee that. The clean up process will start tomorrow, and will last for days. For the latest school closings and delay, I will have them on social media first!
Lead Forecaster -John Bordash As of 4:45pm, here's where we stand right now with the Blizzard of 2016. Light to Moderate snow is falling across the region, and has been doing so since around noon today. Great call by the school districts to close today. As of 4:40, I have recorded 2.5" inches in Solomons, MD.
Temperatures are lower than originally thought. What does this mean? Well it means two things that are very important. Firstly, that means that more snow is able to fall and accumulate. After 2-3 hours of snow, most already reported 1-2" of snow. I'm sure those totals are way higher now. I expect for this to continue throughout the day. It's for this reason alone that it looks like our updated forecast should verify. Secondly, this means that it will take longer for temperatures to get to the point for mixing to occur, and when it does occur, it shouldn't last for too long, maybe just a few hours. It's for this reason that snow totals could be on the higher side of our ranges The Storm Track looks to be further south than I had expected. Our new area of low pressure is forming off the South Carolina/Georgia border, when I had expected it off the South Carolina/North Carolina border. What does this mean? This will allow our already colder than forecasted temperatures to stick around. This also means that the mixing line may not be as far north as thought. Having this further south storm track is good news for snow lovers. This by no means signifies that we'll get the heaviest snow, but it does mean that we could see some more snow. Additionally, this storm track could mean that the winds may not be as high, but could still be above 35mph. The Bottom Line is that things are working in favor for snow lovers right now. The temperatures are cold than thought, and the storm is tracking further south. Expect for the snow to continue, and increase in intensity, throughout the night. If we're going to mix with sleet or rain, it would be between 3am and 10am Saturday. However, some areas in SoMD (Huntingtown, La Plata, Lower Marlboro) may never mix. We are still expecting blizzard conditions, but the winds may not be as high as once feared. Power Outages are still possible, if not likely. Tomorrow midday and early afternoon will feature the heaviest snow for SoMD of the whole storm. The earlier arrival means that snow should leave later, and I'm thinking the snow tapers off between 5pm and 12pm Saturday. Our final forecast was for 12-18" south of Route 231, and 18-24" north of there. We're not changing our forecast, but totals could definitely be on the higher side of those ranges, and might exceed them. Stay off the roads, and inside. Snow removal personnel, SMECO crews, and emergency personnel do not need to worry about navigating around us to do their job. This storm looks to be a top 2 all-time snowstorm. Stay with JB Weather for continuing coverage. Lead Forecaster -John Bordash |
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