Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Saturday Afternoon into Sunday Probability of Accumulating Snow: 95% Snow chances continue to become more solidified for the Mid-Atlantic. Impactful snow looks to strike the area this weekend, with the bulk of the highest totals focused south and west of DC. Areas in Southern Maryland and Central Virginia should be able to squeeze some decent amounts. Impacts could linger into the day on Monday. Snow could start flying across the Mid-Atlantic as early as Saturday as the first initial wave of snow moves through. The northern branch of this storm looks to race out ahead of the "parent" storm down south. As it does so, light snow will break out across northern areas. This is largely where they will see a large chunk of their snow. I am not expecting much snow in Southern Maryland on Saturday, as we look to be too far south for those impacts. As that northern stream wave moves off the coast, that "parent" southern storm will take aim. The storm will move across the Carolina's and off the East Coast on Sunday. With the storm placed just off the Carolina coast, it will tap into Atlantic moisture and throw it into the Mid-Altantic. A strong and cold area of high pressure to our north will lock in the cold air, ensuring this stays all snow for Southern Maryland. Shown below is a snapshot of Sunday afternoon, when conditions could be at their height. The southern storm will focus most of its impacts in areas south of DC. Moderate snow could fall, allowing for decent accumulations. It is important to note, the Southern Maryland snow forecast is largely dependent on this southern storm. If this storm stays a tad more suppressed to the south, or is not as strong, totals could be lowered. On the same token, if this storm comes a touch to the north, or is stronger, totals could be a hair higher. These are details we should iron out over the next couple of days. We will begin to see impacts from this second storm Saturday night into Sunday morning. With temperatures in the lower 30s, this should be all snow. As the afternoon wears on, snow will start to become moderate. If this storm is stronger, we could see the heaviest snows fall Sunday afternoon into the evening. Nevertheless, this storm should move away Sunday night into Monday. By sunrise on Monday, the snow should be over. Shown below is the storm forecast. This should be a decent event for our region. Moderate impacts, largely with travel, are likely on Sunday. Depending on that exact track with the second storm, we could see impacts linger into Monday. Yes, that does mean schools and business could be effected on Monday. It is far too early to say what will happen with school impacts. However, I will say that delays could be possible. I will have school odds out on Sunday for Monday. Shown below is a look at where we stand with our storm. A decent 3-6" looks likely. Without the southern storm being as potent, it is possible we don't see as much snow. It looks like Southern Maryland is game on for some snow on Sunday! While this is not a storm where you will need to stock the pantry, it will be an appreciable event. There are still some uncertainties in regard to exact track and strength of the storm. We will iron those questions out tomorrow night, so you will want to stay tuned. I will have continuous updates and coverage on Facebook and Twitter. Keep it locked in with Southern Maryland's Most Accurate Forecaster.
Lead Forecaster -John A. Bordash
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Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Saturday Afternoon into Sunday Probability of Accumulating Snow: 80% Outside of two winter weather makers early this season, Winter 2018-2019 has been rather uneventful. We have seen quite the number of storms move through and impact the region the last few weeks. However, the lack of cold air has lead to all of these being just rain makers. It does appear that our fate is changing though. As stated in my winter forecast, we are beginning to embark on what looks to be an active second half of the winter. The active stretch should kickoff this weekend, with the first snow threat of 2019. Last night's line of moderate rain helped to introduce an area of high pressure to the region that is helping to funnel in cold air. By tomorrow its presence will be felt on the heels of gusty winds. It will be this area of high pressure that is in-part responsible for this storm. With its placement to our north, it will force this developing storm to our south. This is an ideal setup for Southern Maryland snow. Shown below is a snapshot of our setup on Friday. Our system will be developing in Texas, and will be inducing a large swath of Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico out ahead of it. Our storm system will trek across the southern tier of the country late this week. With this track, areas in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky could tap into some decent to significant snow. As the northern piece of this storm races out ahead, some snow could begin to fall in the Mid-Atlantic as early as Saturday afternoon. This initial wave should not be too impactful, but will coat most surfaces. It will be when the main southern storm moves along reaches the coastline that local impacts will begin to ramp up. Light to more moderate snows will kick off overnight Saturday and should last through a good chunk of Sunday. The area of high pressure to our north should provice more than enough cold air to the Mid-Atlantic to keep our precipitation all snow. The exact track and strength of this storm are not nailed down just yet. Both of those will have profound impacts to our forecast and how much we will see. If this storm were to track further north, we would see the heaviest snow move further north (away from SoMD) and maybe mix our snow will some sleet or rain. If this storm tracks further south, we would only see light snow, and it would be confined to areas south of DC. I believe our final solution will end up somewhere between those two tracks. Where our storm comes far enough north to bring some decent snow to our region, but not far enough north that we deal with the rain/snow line. As we sit 3-4 days out from this storm effecting us, it is looking likely that this will be a decent sized storm. While this will not be the biggest event Southern MD has ever seen, it is a nice ease back into the winter grind. The graphic below shows the storm's impact. Shown are general ranges for snow totals, do not take them as gospel. Look more so at the impacts described. Nevertheless, Sunday will be the most impacted day. Travel looks to be impacted the most with the accumulating snow. As shown in the initial graphic, Southern MD stands a good shot to see snow. It looks like the best chances of heavy snow will be just to our west. We are starting to get more information as things come better into focus with this system. There are still a lot of things to be worked out; namely with the track. Due to that, I will hold off on releasing any specific forecast map until tomorrow evening. Tomorrow is when this storm will come on shore in California, and we can start measuring it's parameters. This means that some changes are still possible with this forecast. Stay with Southern Maryland's most trusted source of weather information for continuous updates. I will have updates both on Facebook and Twitter.
Lead Forecaster -John A. Bordash Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Sunday Afternoon Probability of Accumulating Snow: 60% A storm system is currently in the process of developing along the Gulf Coast. With cold air set in over the Mid-Atlantic, this storm looks to produce a large area of snow as it moves northward. It originally looked like storm would be forced to take a very southern track. That southern track would only bring areas in the Carolina's snow. That no longer appears to be the case. It now looks like the storm will be allowed to come a tick further north, putting Southern Maryland in play for accumulating snow. Shown below is the look of the storm this afternoon. Even with a track further to the north, areas in the Carolina's and in Southwest Virginia still look to be in the bullseye. This is where Winter Storm WARNINGS are up. Snow up to 12" and accumulating ice will all be possible in the pink areas. Shown below are the winter weather alerts as of 4:30p Saturday. The local forecast is one of low confidence. Not only is the storm track in question, but we also need to take how dry the air will be into consideration. Radar might start to show snow as early as noon, but it may not start falling until 2-3pm because the air will be so dry. As the storm moves off shore, it will start to strengthen. With the storm strengthening, more moderate snows will be possible just after sunset, especially for southern areas. Snow should cut off overnight, between 12-2am Monday. Shown below is Futurecast stopped at 6pm. It shows bright white in Southern MD, which would be indicative of moderate snows. With the recent cold temperatures, snow will likely stick to all surfaces. Afternoon temps likely get around freezing, which will allow for the snow to be more of a wet snow, opposed to dry and fluffy. All in all, this will be a moderate impact storm, especially for southern areas. Shown below are the expected impacts for Sunday afternoon. It is too early to say how this storm will effect Monday. School Odds will be out tomorrow evening. Trends today favor Southern Maryland snow lovers. It looks like this storm will indeed be allowed to come far enough north to bring accumulating snow into our region. Areas south of Route 231 have the best chance of accumulating snow, and will see the highest impacts. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this forecast. It is possible that storm comes even further north, and puts higher totals into our region. It is also possible that Southern Maryland misses out with a storm track that ends up going further south or that the air is too dry. I will be posting my final call tomorrow morning. Stay tuned to JB Weather for the latest updates.
Lead Forecaster -John A. Bordash First Chance of Accumulating Snow: Early Thursday Probability of Accumulating Snow: <20% Our first winter storm of the season is on track to arrive tomorrow. The big question is how much snow and ice will fall, and how big of an impact we will see. The National Weather Service has already gone ahead and issued Winter Weather Alerts ahead of the storms arrival. Many will likely begin as a period of snow and sleet, early in the morning. This does include Southern MD as well. However, this will not last long, as warm air works into the region. First coastal areas, then higher elevations areas will switch over to rain. I expect the transition over to rain to be rather easy for Southern MD. This transition should occur around 6am, after maybe an hour or so of some snow and sleet. I am expecting no snow or ice accumulation in this region. Areas along I-95, however, will see more problems switching over. While the snow likely will not accumulate here, the transition to rain will include a period of sleet and freezing rain. While this period of ice will not last long, it could be long enough to cause some problems. Further north and west, this is where snow could accumulate to over an inch, the transition over to ice will lead to problems. It will take this colder areas longer to switch over. The highest elevations in VA/WV/MD and into PA could see a decent amount of snow, and may never switch over to rain just ice. Below is a map of these potential precip types. How much will all of this accumulate to? Generally not much. It will really only be areas north and west of I-95 that will see any snow accumulation. Even in these locations snow probably won't stick to the roadways. Ice will likely also accumulate in the valley's to our west. Below are my predicted ranges. Impacts across the area will likely be due to this transition to rain that could include ice. This impact will be the most pronounced where the transition takes longer. It will be areas along I-81, I-70, I-270, I-83, and I-66 that could see the highest impacts. Locally, in Southern MD there should be low impacts. It will not be until you hit Prince Georges and Anne Arundel Counties where impacts become elevated with slick spots. How will these impacts effect area schools? Closings are likely (over 50%) for western MD. School districts along I-95 and to the immediate west will likely see some delays. Closings are also possible here (about a 25-30% chance). For the lower Piedmont counties along I-95, delays are only possible with a 30% chance. Elsewhere, I'd plan on a full day of school. By and large, this will be your typical, "I-95 and west," storm. It will be these typically colder locations out west that see the majority of the wintry precip. That's the name of the game with these early season storms. Regardless, there will be a lot of moisture across the area. Rain and snow could be heavy at times. I believe this only the beginning to along and active winter. Next week, however, looks to be uneventful and seasonal! Nevertheless, keep it locked in with Southern MD's most trusted weather source, JB Weather for the latest!
-John A. Bordash First Chance of Accumulating Snow: Early Thursday Probability of Accumulating Snow: <10% This winter season is not taking any time getting started! The Mid-Atlantic's first winter storm is on the horizon as it sits about 48 hours away. This will not be a snow maker many. However, this is the first shot at seeing some snowflakes and wintry precipitation for a large swath of the region. Low pressure moving along the Appalachian Mountains is forecast fade and develop a new storm off the Coast. This new storm looks to move along and off the Eastern Seaboard on Thursday. As this coastal storm gets going, it is expected to throw precipitation into our area. Though the details are still murky, this is my current thinking: Precipitation may start as a wintry mix overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning. With the warm coming up from the south, many will turn over to rain quickly, especially coastal areas. This rain looks to persist through the afternoon. Precipitation stay wintry longer for the highest elevation NW of I-95 in Western MD, WV, Western VA, and Central PA. Any accumulation would most likely occur on grassy surfaces although if a period of moderate snow develops, especially before sunrise, some slick spots could develop on roadways NW of DC. This is expected to be an all rain event southeast of DC, as shown below. Where wintry precipitation will hold on longer, the National Weather Service has gone ahead and issued the first Winter Storm WATCH of the season. It is in these higher elevation areas where snow/ice totals could be impactful. How much precipitation are we talking? Not much. While this may be our first winter storm, we are not looking at a lot. Nevertheless, here is my first call on snow and ice totals for the region: Yes, winter is getting off to an early start! This is the second earliest I have ever posted a winter weather forecast. As my winter outlook stated, our southern Jet Stream (storm track) will be very active this winter; like it was this summer and fall. Now that temps are lowering, this will lead to some of these being wintry. While the wintry side of this one will not be widespread, it is encouraging for snow lovers. These early season storms are very climatology driven. It will be the highest elevations, areas away from the coastline. It will be these areas that will be looking at roadway and school/business impacts on Thursday. I will update this forecast tomorrow, and that is when we can start talking school odds. In the meantime, keep it locked in with JB Weather. Southern Maryland's premier weather forecasting outlet!
-John A. Bordash |
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