The snow has started in many parts of the Mid-Atlantic, and as is on it's way to Southern Maryland. The storm looks like it's coming in faster, so the snow could start as early as 11am for some. As it becomes steadier and heavier, temperatures will drop and road conditions will go downhill. Treated highways and major roadways should fare decently into the early-evening or so with temperatures near or a little above freezing.
Confidence remains high that most, if not all, locations will get a minimum of around 10 inches by the time the storm finishes later in the day Saturday. There's a pretty good chance that some or many spots reach near or over 2 feet. Governor Hogan's State of Emergency for Maryland took effect at 7am. Many schools, business, and governments have either closed for today (and the weekend) or will closing early today to be closed for the weekend. For more, see my detailed forecast, accumulation map, and timeline. Stay with JB Weather on Facebook, Twitter, Periscope (mobile app that allows me to go live) and right here on my website for non-stop 24/7 coverage. Lead Forecaster -John Bordash
0 Comments
GOVERNOR HOGAN HAS DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR MARYLAND Not just a major, but a crippling winter storm is approaching. Please take this potentially dangerous storm seriously. Snow will start between mid and late-afternoon Friday, and the evening commute on Friday will likely be impacted, so take precautions accordingly. Slowly through the afternoon and early evening the snow will accumulate. But the bulk of the storm's fury will come after dark and throughout Saturday when snow rates could be over 1-3 inches per hour. It does also appear that sleet, freezing rain, and rain will mix in across our region, which will effect snow totals. However, the latest afternoon runs of the models are suggesting not as many mixing problems as once feared this morning. Snowfall intensity will diminish Saturday afternoon, slowly. But breezes will pickup, creating cold wind-chilled air. The impact of this storm will be felt for a long time after snow ceases by early Sunday morning. The National Weather Service has gone ahead and issued a BLIZZARD WARNING from the I-95 corridor, west to the Bay, including all of Southern MD. Elsewhere, there are Winter Storm Warnings (pink) and Winter Weather Advisories (purple) up for locations across the Mid-Atlantic. The Blizzard Warning does mean that in addition to the wintry weather, we will also see high wind gusts over 35mph for three or more hours. Impact across the region will be high. Travel will be very difficult Friday night through Sunday Morning. DO NOT DRIVE unless absolutely necessary. If you do travel, know that you could be putting your life at risk. Also be courteous of emergency vehicles and snow plows needing right of passage. Flying in/out of D.C. or Baltimore? Airports will likely be forced to close Friday night through Saturday evening. Normal service could take a few days to restore. While I'm not putting out any official school odds for any day other than Friday, expect multi-day school closures next week along with business and the government being forced to close. Below is a new map I will be using to show travel and school impacts. What about School Odds for Friday? Even though the storm may be coming in later, I do not think that schools will want to risk a repeat of yesterday's travel problems across the DMV. But, schools could try to get in as much "learning time" (I use that lightly because not much learning will be happening) before the Blizzard. Some school systems may announce tonight, but some may wait until tomorrow morning. I will have updates on school statues tonight and all day tomorrow (if needed). Nevertheless, below are my school odds. The Bottom Line is that this is looking like more and more of a crippling winter storm for the Mid-Atlantic. 8-14"+ can be expect across the region along with some sleet and freezing rain. This storm will close everything down for days. The later in the day you head through Friday, the more likely you are to encounter impacts. It looks like the storm should be arriving between 1 and 5pm Friday afternoon. Power outages are possible, if not likely. Have a plan ready to go if you lose power, because you could be without it for days. And of course, stay with JB Weather for accurate reporting on Southern Maryland weather, and how it will affect you. You can get updates here, on Facebook, or on Twitter.
Lead Forecaster -John Bordash A major, high-impact winter storm is very likely to strike the Mid-Atlantic with heavy snow Friday and Saturday. This storm has the potential to be as strong as part one of the "Snowpocalypse" storm of Feb 5-6, 2010. The one difference is that the atmosphere will be somewhat warmer this time around, allowing for the possibility that snow will mix with sleet, primarily along and east of I-95. Adding the high winds in addition to the winter weather, will make this not only a winter storm, but a Blizzard. The National Weather Service has gone ahead and hoisted a BLIZZARD WATCH for all areas along and east of I-95, which includes all of Southern Maryland. For a storm to be considered a blizzard, all you need are winds over 35mph for over 3 hours, there is no snow requirement. However, we will also see high snow totals in addition to the high winds. Even though we have the blizzard watch, I think the highest snow totals will stay out to our west. As our storm system passes off the coast, we will see coastal flooding along all the Atlantic Beaches from North Carolina to New York. Additionally, as this storm rapidly strengthens, we will see high winds wrap around, hence the blizzard watch. It looks like areas to our north and west will be mainly snow for all of the event. For areas along and to the east of I-95, we will see snow too, but we will have some mixing overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. Rain will mix in at times on the coast, but they too will see wintry weather. BOTTOM LINEI have growing confidence that our region will experience the first blizzard in over 6 years. Right now, it looks like accumulations will be in, and around, a foot of snow. The latest trends put some of the heavier snow in our region, but I will hold off on any changes. This storm moves in Friday Afternoon, which will make it a hard call for schools. You need to begin preparations today. If you have plans to fly or travel anytime after noon Friday, I would strongly recommend changing them or risk some major headaches. I urge you to stay with JB Weather for the latest forecasts without any hype. I will be updating this forecast tomorrow with my final call. Hunker down SoMD, this could easily break our top ten all time snowstorm list! Lead Forecaster -John Bordash Long video discussion about the storm. Everything I talk about in this video is also talked about below in the blog update. Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Friday - Saturday Probability of Accumulating Snow (1" or more): 90% It looks like we could be facing our first potential major winter storm late this week. Cold air being driven southward will converge with precipitation being pushed northward Friday into Saturday. However, our cold air is not expected to exceptionally strong, and the potential snow could be of a wetter variety along with some mixed precipitation. Due to the intensification of the storm, it looks like we will have to deal with some high winds as well. All of our weather models with this system have been surprisingly consistent this far out. However, expect that the forecast could change a few times as the storm fully get sampled late tonight. Nevertheless, the very active subtropical branch of the jet stream in this pattern suggests that this storm will have an ample moisture supply. Additionally, with a cold area of high pressure to the north of us, in southern Canada, the Mid-Atlantic looks to be in a highly favored position. As usual, the storm track will be a key factor in determining how much and what type of precipitation we see, so I've set up two scenarios for the storms. Below is a depiction of both scenarios.
My early outlook is that this storm will likely be the biggest storm in the past 6 years. I'm favoring a track that's closer to the coast, and one that limits the amount of cold air. Nevertheless, we will still see quite a bit of wintry weather. We may mix with rain at times, but that's to be expected with winter storms. I believe that this storm's "bullseye" will be centered right on the Mid-Atlantic, but away from the coast. Below are my chances on what type of winter storm we will be dealing with. The Bottom Line is to expect a winter storm that looks to start sometime either late morning or midday Friday that lasts until sometime Saturday afternoon. There are still a few unknowns, mainly concerning storm track, which ultimately affects precipitation type. It's still too early to put out any snowfall forecast numbers with this storm, but nevertheless, this will be a high impact storm with high winds. This forecast still has the potential to change over the next few days with new information that comes in. However, if you're planning on flying out Friday afternoon or anytime on Saturday, your flight is likely to be delayed or canceled. You may be able to get out Friday morning, and definitely on Thursday. Stay with JB Weather for the latest information on Southern Maryland weather. I plan to have my first call on snow totals sometime tomorrow, probably in the afternoon or evening. Lead Forecaster -John Bordash Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Friday - Saturday Probability of Accumulating Snow (1" or more): 50% For non-snow lovers in the Mid-Atlantic, this is has been your winter. Record setting warmth in December with no snow at all, and a pretty quiet January. The area just picked up its first measurable snowfall after an over performing storm on Sunday, and even that was small. Well non-snow lovers, your luck may be running out. Our storm chance covers the period from early Friday through Saturday. This storm does have the potential to be big, as I'm sure most have heard. However, there are large uncertainties with respect to its evolution and track. There is high confidence a storm will develop near the Gulf Coast states midweek and then head northeastward. But as with all storms from the south, the exact track it takes will determine how much impact it has on the region. A more inland track could mean some snow before a changeover to rain and/or mixed precipitation. A track too far to the south and east would result in little, if any, precipitation. A track just off the coast, in between the first two tracks mentioned, would mean the potential for significant snow, which is what some of our more reputable models are showing like the European. I don't disagree that there is the potential for a significant precipitation event somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic late this week but I should stress it is very unclear whether this precipitation event will manifest itself as a significant snowstorm. As we have witnessed throughout the winter so far, many snowstorms simulated 5+ days out by computer models have a high chance to not materialize. Below is an image from the American Model which shows some mixing problems for Southern Maryland because of the winds coming off the water (represented by the arrows). Keeping everything in mind, here's my assessment of our current snow potential:
Nuisance Event: 30% Disruptive Event: 40% Significant Event: 20% Historic Event: 10% Summary I still think it's too early to latch on to an exact track, but I do tend to think the inland scenario is a tad more likely than the other two I described which would mean some significant precipitation for the region. My other hunch is that cold air may be in shorter supply meaning rain and/or sleet may enter the picture. You're going to see a lot of images over the next few days of crazy snow totals along with a lot of hype. All I can say is to do is just ignore those sensationalist, and keep it locked in with JB Weather for the latest throughout the week. Lead Forecaster -John Bordash |
Archives
August 2020
Categories
All
|