February will definitely live up to to it's reputation as a winter month over the coming days. Not only am I tracking bitter cold on tap for late this week and weekend, but I'm also watching a storm chance for early next week.
Cold air moves in tonight on the coattails of some breezy northwest winds. For next 4-5 days, I don't think we see a high on the better side of freezing, and if we do get above freezing, it'll be for an hour or two. It looks like we max out between 30-32 Thursday and Friday. Temperatures on Friday will actually drop throughout the day as a cold front moves through that will usher in even colder air! We stay in the 20s this weekend with Saturday night offering some record cold. Lows in the single digits will challenge many records and the gusty winds will make it feel like we're well below zero. It looks like we do eventually warm up next week, which should be welcomed by many.
In my forecasting expiernce, I have learned that when you're dealing with arctic air, there is almost always a snow chance when the cold air moves in and/or when the cold air leaves. We could have some flurries Friday night when the coldest air moves in with the cold front. However, I'm more interested with the potential early next week, when the cold air leaves.
It looks like we'll have a storm heading northeastward somewhere along the east coast between Monday and Wednesday next week. Now I'm still uncertain about the storm track. A track to our northwest, across West Virginia, would be a warmer solution and would favor a mainly rain solution w/ a few snowflakes at the onset. If the storm takes more of a track like the second one, along the coastline, we would be colder and would favor a more wintry solution. I think we'll see a mixture of the two tracks. An initial low pressure system would try to take track 1 but then is forced to form a new low pressure area that follows track 2. Those types of set ups tend to favor at least some type of a wintry solution. It's also really hard to just have entrenched cold air move out of our region, so temps may very well stay in the low 30s Monday and maybe hitting 40 on Tuesday. It's all just speculation at this point, and we won't know details until we get closer to the weekend.
The Bottom Line is that the next few days are going to be extremely cold and as our cold air tries to moves out, we could have a storm to deal with. There are a few unknowns this far out, especially with our storm threat. Don't make any changes to your schedules for early next week yet, but know that there is threat for something early next week. We'll have more details in the coming days. We first need to focus on the bitter cold for late this week and weekend. Stay with JB Weather for the latest Southern Maryland weather forecasts.