Tropical Storm Joaquin Tropical Storm Joaquin is undergoing a period of rapid strengthening. Joaquin is now a strong tropical storm, and approaching hurricane status. The new forecast from the National Hurricane Center, abbreviated NHC, now takes Joaquin up to a strong Category 1 storm (look below for the Hurricane Scale). The NHC also keeps Joaquin as a hurricane through their forecast period. Keep in mind that the NHC forecast only goes through 5 days, and I believe that this track it too far out to sea. Weekend Forecast Discussion The forecast with Joaquin is extremely difficult due to the high amount of uncertainty with the track. Below is a graphic to show just how difficult the forecast is. The white arrows show steering winds, yellow ones show storm track. Here are a few important things to note:
A combination of these three will create for a very wet period, Friday - Monday Putting it all Together As I've said the past couple days, this forecast is very difficult, and there is not that much confidence with it. Wherever that strong high to the north sets up, will be key on whether or not we see a direct impact. Below are my scenarios and chances: SCENARIO A (45%) MID ATLANTIC LANDFALL This is the worst case scenario. The way Joaquin makes landfall in the Mid Atlantic is if the weather set up as shown in the above picture, happens. The Jet Stream, in conjunction with the strong high to the north, would have the storm take a left turn and "back in" to the coast somewhere between Cape Hatteras to southern New Jersey. Now, if it makes landfall south of us, that's bad, north of us would still be bad, but not as bad. Here's what SoMD can expect with this scenario
NOTE: THOSE NUMBERS ARE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH. THE NUMBERS I HAVE NOW ARE IF THE STORM IS A CATEGORY ONE STORM SCENARIO B (30%) NEW ENGLAND LANDALL This is scenario is not as bad as the first, but is not walk in the park either. The way Joaquin makes landfall in New England is if the strong high to the north moves further east, out to sea, but the Jet Stream stays in place taking it up the coast. This would not have the storm "backing in to the coast" rather, just up the coast. Here's what we could expect in SoMD with this scenario
NOTE: THOSE NUMBERS ARE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH. THE NUMBERS I HAVE NOW ARE IF THE STORM IS A CATEGORY ONE STORM SCENARIO C (25%) OUT TO SEA This is scenario is the best case. We would still see rain from the non-tropical low, just not from Joaquin. Here's what we could expect in SoMD with this scenario:
Conclusion
Right now, all possibilities are on the table. Do not panic, rather, keep it locked in with JB Weather for the latest information on this storm. We will know a lot more on Joaquin by Thursday. I think the target time period for impact from Joaquin will be from Saturday through Sunday, and into Monday. I think we'll start to see rain and wind from the non-tropical low starting Thursday afternoon. The next advisory on Joaquin will be in late tonight, at 11pm. Stay tuned for updates. Lead Forecaster -John Bordash
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