Since yesterday, Joaquin has intensified into a Category 1 Hurricane. This storm continues to strengthen, and I see no reason why that would stop over the next 72 hours. The 5pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center is close to a "worst case scenario" for us in Southern Maryland. Tonight, I'm going to walk you through why this is happening, how the weekend is looking right now, and what you should be doing at this moment. For information on the different track scenarios, scroll down past the Rainfall Forecast. Pattern Setup This is a very difficult pattern to explain. On the map below, white arrows are steering winds. Anyway, here's the skinny of the setup:
As everything stands right now, it appears that Joaquin will get "picked up" by the Jet Stream, and flung somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic. The strong high to the north will prevent it from going too far up the coast, and will also help to back Joaquin into the coastline. Lastly, Ida's Remnants are going to be the biggest influence on this forecast. Right now, Ida's Remnants are forcing Joaquin to go down to the southwest, towards the Bahamas. That track was always forecasted. However, if Ida's Remnants continue to force Joaquin down to the southwest tomorrow afternoon, the Jet Stream will instead fling it out to sea. The European model has shown this type of a solution, thus, cannot be written off. If Ida's Remnants were not there, this forecast would be ten times easier, as we could say with confidence that this will track into the Mid-Atlantic. Weekend Forecast Discussion Before Hurricane Joaquin even became a worry, the threat of heavy rain was always in the forecast from that Non-Tropical Low as shown above. Right now, it appears that we'll see impacts from that feature starting Thursday Afternoon (originally Friday) and through the day Sunday. How much rain will we see? Take a look below at the rainfall forecast. Remember, 4-8" of rain in SoMD is without Joaquin. Now do you see the flooding issue Joaquin could pose? This amount of rain alone would case serious issues. Now we talk about Hurricane Joaquin's possible impact on our region. The National Hurricane Center's newest forecast take what could be a category 2 storm, right up the Chesapeake, with a direct hit on Southern Maryland. I could not think of a worse track. The only other track that would be slightly worse is if the storm tracks more to west (or left). Below are my different scenarios on what could happen: SCENARIO A (50%) MID ATLANTIC LANDFALL This is the worse case scenario, and the one that the National Hurricane Center is adverting. How does this scenario play out? The storm gets pulled north by the Jet Stream, and flung into the coastline from the strong high. With this, landfall could be anywhere from Southern New Jersey to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. What would this mean for us? Well, I'll go in the middle with a Virginia Beach landfall as a Category 2 storm (like the Hurricane Center has), and here are the impacts:
SCENARIO B (30%) SOUTHEAST LANDFALL This scenario would be better than Scenario A, but is also no walk in the park. How does this scenario play out? The storm gets pulled north by the Jet Stream, like with Scenario A. However, the high is stronger and/or further south, and the storm gets flung into the coastline further south. The storm would go north after landfall, just over land. With this, landfall could be anywhere from Virginia Beach to the South Carolina/North Carolina line. What would this mean for us? Well, I'll go in the middle with a Cape Hatteras landfall as a Category 2 storm, and here are the impacts:
SCENARIO C (20%) OUT TO SEA This scenario is the best case one. How does this scenario play out? The storm interacts too much the remnants of Ida, continues to move southwest over the next 36 hours, and gets "ejected" out to sea by the Jet Stream. With this, it would be as if Joaquin had never even formed in terms of impacts here. What would this mean for us? Here are the impacts:
Putting it All Together Now that you know what we're going to be dealing with, and why, what should you be doing right now? Well, at the moment, you just need to keep it locked in with JB Weather and start thinking of what you would do if Scenario A occurred. Pray for the best case scenario, but be thinking what you'll do if the worst case happens. No need to run out to the stores just yet, but be aware. Below is an image of the areas that need to be aware of Joaquin: Right now, I expect periods of heavy rain with some wind starting Thursday Afternoon through Sunday. If Joaquin does in fact come into the coast, we'd see more heavy rain with wind Sunday into Monday. Keep in mind, nothing is set in stone with Joaquin, and all scenarios are still on the table. Tomorrow afternoon and evening, I'll be able to say with more certainty what will happen. Until then, keep it tuned in with us here at JB Weather. The weather team is working around the clock to keep you all informed. Next advisory on Joaquin comes in at 11pm tonight. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for the latest updates.
Lead Forecaster -John Bordash
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Tropical Storm Joaquin Tropical Storm Joaquin is undergoing a period of rapid strengthening. Joaquin is now a strong tropical storm, and approaching hurricane status. The new forecast from the National Hurricane Center, abbreviated NHC, now takes Joaquin up to a strong Category 1 storm (look below for the Hurricane Scale). The NHC also keeps Joaquin as a hurricane through their forecast period. Keep in mind that the NHC forecast only goes through 5 days, and I believe that this track it too far out to sea. Weekend Forecast Discussion The forecast with Joaquin is extremely difficult due to the high amount of uncertainty with the track. Below is a graphic to show just how difficult the forecast is. The white arrows show steering winds, yellow ones show storm track. Here are a few important things to note:
A combination of these three will create for a very wet period, Friday - Monday Putting it all Together As I've said the past couple days, this forecast is very difficult, and there is not that much confidence with it. Wherever that strong high to the north sets up, will be key on whether or not we see a direct impact. Below are my scenarios and chances: SCENARIO A (45%) MID ATLANTIC LANDFALL This is the worst case scenario. The way Joaquin makes landfall in the Mid Atlantic is if the weather set up as shown in the above picture, happens. The Jet Stream, in conjunction with the strong high to the north, would have the storm take a left turn and "back in" to the coast somewhere between Cape Hatteras to southern New Jersey. Now, if it makes landfall south of us, that's bad, north of us would still be bad, but not as bad. Here's what SoMD can expect with this scenario
NOTE: THOSE NUMBERS ARE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH. THE NUMBERS I HAVE NOW ARE IF THE STORM IS A CATEGORY ONE STORM SCENARIO B (30%) NEW ENGLAND LANDALL This is scenario is not as bad as the first, but is not walk in the park either. The way Joaquin makes landfall in New England is if the strong high to the north moves further east, out to sea, but the Jet Stream stays in place taking it up the coast. This would not have the storm "backing in to the coast" rather, just up the coast. Here's what we could expect in SoMD with this scenario
NOTE: THOSE NUMBERS ARE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH. THE NUMBERS I HAVE NOW ARE IF THE STORM IS A CATEGORY ONE STORM SCENARIO C (25%) OUT TO SEA This is scenario is the best case. We would still see rain from the non-tropical low, just not from Joaquin. Here's what we could expect in SoMD with this scenario:
Conclusion
Right now, all possibilities are on the table. Do not panic, rather, keep it locked in with JB Weather for the latest information on this storm. We will know a lot more on Joaquin by Thursday. I think the target time period for impact from Joaquin will be from Saturday through Sunday, and into Monday. I think we'll start to see rain and wind from the non-tropical low starting Thursday afternoon. The next advisory on Joaquin will be in late tonight, at 11pm. Stay tuned for updates. Lead Forecaster -John Bordash Late last night, Tropical Depression 11 was upgraded to a tropical storm, and by doing so, was given the name "Joaquin". The new forecast from the National Hurricane Center, as seen above, shows some pretty dramatic changes than previous forecasts. The storm is now expected to move slower over the next three days than previously forecasted. Joaquin is also expected to be strong than forecasted yesterday, nearly making it to hurricane status this weekend (a storm is deemed a hurricane when winds reach 74mph). With the storm slowing down, and potentially becoming stronger, that does have a change on our weekend forecast. So, what can we expect here in Southern Maryland? Right now, here are my two scenarios:
Conclusion
The forecast with Tropical Storm Joaquin is very difficult as a large amount of uncertainty remains with it's track and strength. Overall, expect the "worse conditions" to be Sunday. If the storm slows even more, than Monday has the potential to be effected as well. Stay with JB Weather for the latest on this tropical storm. The next advisory comes out 5pm, which should provide more insight on the storm Lead Forecaster -John Bordash The eleventh Tropical Depression (TD) of the 2015 Tropical Season has formed. Moisture from T.D. 11 and a slow moving storm system may join together to give the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic quite the soaking this weekend. Firstly, lets talk about what's going on with TD 11. If you're looking for quick information on this storm, scroll down to the "Conclusion". Tropical Depression 11 Info As of the 5pm Advisory from the the National Hurricane Center, our tropical depression currently sets about 630 miles northeast of Miami, FL, and isn't moving all that fast (only six miles an hour). The above image shows the storm's current stats with its project path in gray. Right now, we're not expecting this storm to get all that strong, but will likely strengthen enough to reach tropical storm status (look at graphic below for tropical system strength scale). If the storm were to achieve tropical storm status, it would be given the name "Joaquin". Weekend Forecast Discussion Steering winds in the upper atmosphere could lead to a system moving north from the Gulf of Mexico (non-tropical at the moment), Tropical Depression 11, as well as few other weather stems to come together along the East Coast by this weekend. High pressure to the north will play a big role in how things shape up. Now, how nasty conditions get along the East Coast, and in Southern Maryland, are completely dependent on Tropical Depression 11's strength and track. If TD 11 tracks further the west, we would see nastier conditions, however, if TD 11 track further east, conditions would not be as bad. At the moment, it appears that the heaviest rains, and worse conditions, should be in Southern New England. Many of our weather models keep the storm as a weak Tropical Storm, heading up the coast into New England/out to sea all together. However, a few keep the system close to the coastline, and even have it making landfall along the New Jersey or Long Island coastline, which would mean more impact here. Right now, I'm leaning slightly more towards a track that is more out to sea, and thus, not as devastating to the weekend forecast. Regardless, it looks like the most troublesome time period will be from Saturday morning into early Sunday morning, with Sunday looking at least halfway decent. Here are the two scenarios:
Conclusion
The forecast with TD 11 is not the easiest, especially five days out. This forecast is 100% reliant on the storm's track and strength. Right now, expect some showers Saturday, with some gusty winds near 20mph on Saturday, however, Saturday will not be a washout. Sunday looks to offer some clearing. Stay with JB Weather for the latest on Tropical Depression 11, and it's possible impacts on SoMD Lead Forecaster -John Bordash |
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